Alberta separatism draws parallels to Quebec but runs shallower, Bishop’s political scientist says
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A two-lane highway winds through dense boreal forest toward a mountain ridge — the kind of landscape that defines Alberta’s sense of itself, and that independence supporters say should belong to Albertans alone. Photo: Losterah / Pexels.
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As calls for Alberta independence grow louder in the wake of federal election tensions, a political scientist at Bishop’s University says the movement shares surface similarities with Quebec sovereigntism but lacks the cultural depth and committed voter base that made — and still makes — the Quebec independence question a genuinely viable one.
Jacob Robbins-Kanter, an associate professor and chair of the Department of Politics and International Studies at Bishop’s University in Lennoxville, spoke to The Pulse by phone on May 26 as Premier Danielle Smith navigated mounting pressure over a possible independence referendum.
‘The similarities end pretty quickly’
Robbins-Kanter acknowledged common threads between the two movements — chiefly, a shared sense of alienation from federal decision-making and a feeling of distinctiveness from the rest of the country.
“In both cases, there’s a sense of being disconnected from the centre of political decision-making in the country, and of not having your concerns taken sort of appropriately accounted for by the central government,” he said. “A sense of being distinct from the rest of the country.”
But he was quick to draw a sharp line between them. Quebec’s independence movement is rooted in a centuries-old national identity, a distinct language, and a coherent sovereigntist political tradition. Alberta’s, by contrast, is driven primarily by economics and politics — the argument that the province’s oil and gas wealth has subsidized the rest of Canada without adequate return.
“The cultural arguments are secondary” in Alberta, Robbins-Kanter said, though he noted there is a loose sense of frontier identity and a political culture that has more in common with the American West than with central Canada. “I think the similarities end pretty quickly once you start to dig a bit deeper.”
Support in Alberta is high — but soft
Polling data illustrates both the scale and the limits of Alberta’s independence sentiment. Robbins-Kanter put support for separation in the province at roughly 20 to 25 per cent, depending on how pollsters phrase the question and whether an “undecided” option is offered. By comparison, support for Quebec sovereignty currently sits in the 30 per cent range — down significantly from its historical highs of the 1990s.
The gap, however, is less significant than the quality of the support itself.
“The support in Quebec is more solid,” Robbins-Kanter said. “There are some people in Alberta who would say, ‘Oh yeah, I’m sympathetic to the independence movement,’ but at the end of the day they wouldn’t actually vote to separate. They just want to use it as a protest vote, whereas in Quebec there’s more of a committed sovereigntist vote.”
That distinction matters enormously when it comes to the movement’s political leverage. In Quebec, the credible threat of a referendum has historically forced the federal government to the table. In Alberta, Robbins-Kanter is skeptical the same dynamic can take hold.
“When the support is maxing out at like 25 per cent, it’s not really a plausible thing,” he said. “I don’t think it works quite as well in Alberta.”
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The Clarity Act question
Prime Minister Mark Carney has reportedly recently suggested that 50 per cent plus one would not be sufficient to trigger a legitimate separation process for Alberta — a threshold debate that echoes the Supreme Court’s 1998 reference opinion on Quebec secession and the subsequent federal Clarity Act.
Robbins-Kanter noted the parallel immediately. “It recalls the issue of the Clarity Act and whether that would be enough in the case of Quebec — and how the Supreme Court had to make a determination on that, and basically said we’d have to have a clear majority and a clear question in order to consider the results legitimate. So, I guess it just sort of begs the question of what is a clear majority if not 50 per cent plus one.”
American interest in Alberta independence
One element that has no real parallel in Quebec’s independence story is the role of the United States. Robbins-Kanter pointed to what he described as quiet American support for the Alberta independence movement — not out of principled sympathy, but out of strategic interest in the province’s energy resources and cultural alignment with certain segments of American political culture.
“The Trump administration seems to be sort of not so secretly supporting Alberta independence because they think that even if Alberta became independent, they might eventually just join the United States,” he said. “They like the resources that Alberta has, and there are commonalities in political culture.”
He noted that a pro-independence Alberta group had reportedly travelled to Washington in recent months to meet with sympathetic American politicians, and that supporters of outright annexation and supporters of independence sometimes overlap.
Danielle Smith’s delicate dance
Robbins-Kanter reserved some of his sharpest analysis for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, describing her position as a deliberate balancing act between a restive pro-independence base and a mainstream Alberta electorate that remains firmly opposed to leaving Canada.
Smith, he noted, came to power after her predecessor Jason Kenney was effectively ousted by factions within the United Conservative Party who felt he had mishandled the COVID-19 pandemic. That precedent weighs heavily on her calculations.
“She’s trying to stay popular enough with her base to keep her leadership of the party, but then also mainstream Alberta in its public opinion is against independence, so she can’t be overtly pro-independence,” Robbins-Kanter said. “She’s trying to sort of play both sides.”
He said one of the more interesting questions going forward is how Smith would conduct herself during any referendum campaign — whether she would openly campaign for Canada, or take a studied neutrality to avoid alienating her party’s independence-minded wing.
25 per cent may be the ceiling
Asked whether he could envision support for Alberta independence rising above 25 per cent, Robbins-Kanter was sceptical — and offered a structural reason why the movement may actually weaken over time rather than strengthen.
“Alberta is becoming a more diversified place economically, and more people from other provinces are moving there, more immigrants from other countries are moving there,” he said. “If I look at the future of the independence movement there, to me it looks like it’s just going to get worse for that side. Twenty-five per cent might be the high-water mark.”
He also pointed to a shift in Liberal fortunes under Carney. Trudeau had been uniquely toxic in Alberta — but Carney has proven considerably more palatable, with Liberals polling closer to the Conservatives in the province than at any point in recent memory.
Any significant spike in independence support, Robbins-Kanter concluded, would require a major provocation — “something that really rubs people the wrong way in terms of how Alberta is treated in the federation.” Short of that, he does not see it happening.
Jacob Robbins-Kanter is an associate professor and chair of the Department of Politics and International Studies at Bishop’s University in Lennoxville, Quebec, and co-editor of The Working Class and Politics in Canada.
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